Fishing Score methodology

The Fishing Score is a 1–10 conditions index. Its core is weather-based and it does not predict catches with certainty. On eligible river pages, a separate USGS streamflow check can only reduce the current score when flow is unusually far from its long-term seasonal baseline or changing rapidly.

Weather scoring weights

Missing weather data

A missing measurement is never treated as zero. The site first scores the weather factors that are available, then adjusts a partial result toward a neutral 5/10 according to the missing weight. For example, a forecast with 72% coverage keeps 72% of the observed-factor signal and 28% neutral weight. This avoids inflated 9–10 scores when an important input such as pressure is missing. If too little weather data is available, the site shows “Limited data” instead of publishing a precise numeric score.

USGS long-term seasonal baseline

For mapped inland stations, the page can query approved USGS daily statistics in addition to live and recent observations. The seasonal baseline is the USGS day-of-year statistic for the same calendar day across the approved period of record. A streamflow median shown for August 19, for example, is calculated from historical August 19 daily values rather than from the previous 30 days. The number of contributing approved same-day observations is shown when available. A streamflow baseline must include at least 20 approved observations for that calendar day before it can affect the Fishing Score. This matches the conservative minimum USGS uses for surface-water discharge duration graphs; shorter records can still be shown as context but remain score-neutral.

River-flow adjustment

The water modifier is deliberately conservative and one-sided. Normal streamflow does not earn bonus points. On eligible river pages, the current score is reduced by 0.2 when streamflow is more than 30% from the seasonal median, by 0.4 when more than 60% away, and by 0.6 when more than 100% away. A further 0.1–0.2 reduction can apply for a large 24-hour flow change, with another 0.1 possible for an extreme 7-day change. The total water penalty is capped at 0.8 points. Water temperature and water level remain contextual and do not currently change the score.

Recent hydrology context

Fresh USGS water temperature, streamflow, gage height or lake/reservoir elevation can also be compared with roughly 24 hours ago, the recent 7-day direction and a median of recent daily values from up to 30 days. The 30-day median is short-term context and is always kept separate from the long-term seasonal baseline.

7-day outlook

All seven daily cards aggregate National Weather Service forecast-grid values for each local calendar day, including today. Daily wind and cloud values are averaged, daily rain chance uses the highest forecast probability, pressure uses the daily forecast level and trend, and lunar illumination is calculated for that date. The seven daily cards remain weather-only because this site does not forecast future USGS streamflow. Scores below 90% weather-data coverage are visibly marked as partial.

Activity windows

Displayed activity windows are centered on sunrise and sunset. They are estimated low-light windows, not guaranteed solunar major periods.

Known limits

The model does not yet score water temperature, lake or reservoir level, turbidity, species-specific thermal preferences, spawning cycles, forage, fishing pressure or local access conditions. The flow adjustment is a general river-condition guardrail, not a species-specific biological model. Coastal tide data remains separate from the 1–10 score.